Showing posts with label Nifty 50. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nifty 50. Show all posts

Option Strategy : Covered Call

Friday, May 30, 2014

Covered Call


where an investor holds a long position in an asset and writes (sells) call options on that same asset in an attempt to generate increased income from the asset. 



This is often employed when an investor has a short-term neutral view on the asset and for this reason hold the asset long and simultaneously have a short position via the option to generate income from the option premium.



For example, let's say I own shares of the HINDALCO and like its long-term prospects as well but feel in the shorter term the stock will likely trade relatively flat, perhaps within a few Rs up and down of its current price of, say, 150. If you sell a call option on HINDALCO for 160 Rs, you earn the premium from the option sale but cap your upside. One of three scenarios is going to play out:


  • HINDALCO shares trade flat (below the 160 Rs strike price) - the option will expire worthless and you keep the premium from the option. In this case, by using the buy-write strategy you have successfully outperformed the stock.

  • HINDALCO shares fall - the option expires worthless, you keep the premium, and again you outperform the stock.

  • HINDALCO shares rise above 160 - the option is exercised, and your upside is capped at 160 RS, plus the option premium. In this case, if the stock price goes higher than 160 Rs, plus the premium, your buy-write strategy has underperformed the HINDALCO shares.
1 lot of HINDALCO has 2000 shares ( which approximately translates into 2000 X 150 =  3 lakh Rs  investment). almost all of the lot of different stocks is in the same range. Now lets see how near month price is for different strike price of HINDALCO 
=====================
Strike price     Premium 
150                  8.55
152.5               7.15
155                  6.25
157.5               5.40
160                  4.50
=====================
At strike price of 160, which is OUT-OF-THE-MONEY, call option can be relatively safely sold and premium of 4.5 Rs, which translates into  4.5 X 2000 = 9000 Rs , from an investment of 3 lakh, which translates into 3 % monthly return (36 % annual return  Quite decent return !!!!) 

A more sophisticated investor can use future in place of stocks to implement the same strategy, but the risk involved and skill requirement is quite high. 

Source : Wikipedia


This strategy is best used when the investor would like to generate income off a long position while the market is moving sideways. It allows an investor/writer to continue a buy-and-hold strategy to make money off a stock which is currently inactive in gains. 

The investor/writer must correctly guess that the stock won't make any gains within the time frame of the option; this is best done by writing an out-of-the-money option

A covered call doesn't have as much potential for reward as other types of options, thus the risk is also low.


Time Decay






The passage of time has a positive impact on this strategy, all other things being equal.  As expiration approaches, an option tends to converge very fast on its intrinsic value, which for out-of-money calls is zero.

Main point of this strategy :
  1. It has limited profit potential.
  2. It has unlimited loss potential.
  3. Once the strategy is introduced, reduction in volatility is beneficial for this strategy.

A note of caution

As long as the short call position remains open, the investor isn't free to sell the stock. It would leave the calls uncovered and expose the investor to unlimited risk by making it a naked call.


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Nifty outlook for 16 march

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

A further radiation threat from nuclear reactors caused almost 110 point gap down opening in Nifty today, which went further down to ~ 150 point.

Nifty recover from there and presented a perfect buying opportunity @ 10:26 AM when it crossed from lower BOLL Band to UPPER band. Exit signal from this position can be taken from falling RSI and flattening Bollinger band shape.

Nifty offered second opportunity to enter by shorting @ 2:38 PM  ~ 5480 level with RSI falling(~40) and exit around 5440 level.



Nifty 2min chart


Nifty 5 min chart

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The really big money tends to be made by investors who are right on qualitative decisions but, at least in my opinion, the more sure money tends to be made on the obvious quantitative decisions. - Warren Buffett

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Nifty Outlook for 15 march

Monday, March 14, 2011


Nifty crossed the 5500, a crucial level of resistance  decisively despite the disaster in Japan. This shows a inherent strength in Indian economy. Funds from Japanese quake sell-off might have entered on Indian bourses to give a little push which we see today. This might be short term in nature. A further 50-60 points up move which place Nifty to 5600 level can be viewed by traders as a profit booking level.

 30-min Nifty chart we can see a resistance level of 5550 and 5600 and having a supports at 5450 and 5400.

On on 5-min Nifty chart support levels come at 5500, 5480.

Nifty 2 minute chart (click on image to view large)







Nifty 5 minute chart


Nifty 30 minute char


Nifty daily chart
I don´t predict which may market will turn rather work on how it is moving.

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creating online stock portfolio of nifty 50 in google finance

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Google finance provides almost real time stock data.Nifty 50 stock on NSE niftyspark is delayed by ~ 2 min and refresh is not automatic.google data is almost real so its worth it to create nifty 50 portfolio on google. the only catch is you have to create it manual. I created it for myself. I am posting all the manual work so other don't have to go through the same.


step 1: click on portfolio
step 2: create a new portfolio
step 3: click on edit portfolio
step 4: add all the symbol list for respective portfolio in the text box and save

that's itttt!
you have created your nifty portfolio. enjoy
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NIFTY 50
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NSE:SUZLON NSE:MARUTI NSE:AXISBANK NSE:NTPC NSE:LT NTPC:IDFC NSE:BPCL NSE:HCLTECH NSE:HINDALCO NSE:ICICIBANK NSE:BAJAJ-AUTO NSE:RCOM NSE:TATAMOTORS NSE:SUNPHARMA NSE:DLF NSE:HDFCBANK NSE:TATASTEEL NSE:SAIL NSE:STER NSE:HDFC NSE:AMBUJACEM NSE:SESAGOA NSE:RANBAXY NSE:GAIL NSE:INFOSYSTCH NSE:BHEL NSE:SBIN NSE:PNB NSE:RELIANCE NSE:ITC NSE:RPOWER NSE:DRREDDY NSE:KOTAKBANK NSE:JINDALSTEL NSE:BHARTIARTL NSE:CIPLA NSE:HINDUNILVR NSE:HEROHONDA NSE:CAIRN NSE:ONGC NSE:RELINFRA NSE:WIPRO NSE:RELCAPITAL NSE:ACC NSE:TCS NSE:POWERGRID NSE:SIEMENS NSE:TATAPOWER NSE:BAJAJ-AUTO BOM:500520 NSE:JPASSOCIAT
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NIFTY MIDCAP 50


NSE:ASHOKLEY NSE:IVRCLINFRA NSE:JSWSTEEL NSE:HOTELEELA NSE:PATELENG NSE:AUROPHARMA NSE:HDIL NSE:PETRONET NSE:PUNJLLOYD NSE:MOSERBAER NSE:APIL NSE:ANDHRABANK NSE:ALBK NSE:HCC NSE:TECHM NSE:SCI NSE:MPHASIS NSE:BAJAJHIND NSE:ROLTA NSE:INDHOTEL NSE:PRAJIND NSE:IDBI NSE:VIJAYABANK NSE:NAGARCONST NSE:LUPIN NSE:SINTEX NSE:CESC NSE:TTML NSE:TATACHEM NSE:UNIPHOS NSE:BEML NSE:GESHIP NSE:MTNL NSE:INDIANB NSE:INDIACEM NSE:ULTRACEMCO NSE:LITL NSE:DIVISLAB NSE:CHENNPETRO NSE:SYNDIBANK NSE:TITAN NSE:OFSS NSE:TATAGLOBAL NSE:GVKPIL NSE:EDUCOMP NSE:CUMMINSIND NSE:WELCORP NSE:VOLTAS NSE:PIRHEALTH NSE:STERLINBIO


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BANKNIFTY

NSE:AXISBANK NSE:ICICIBANK NSE:BANKINDIA NSE:ORIENTBANK NSE:HDFCBANK NSE:IDBI NSE:UNIONBANK NSE:SBIN NSE:PNB NSE:KOTAKBANK NSE:BANKBARODA NSE:CANBK
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** The stocks in nifty index keep changing as NSE review it regularly so small correction is needed time to time

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Nifty and Dollar-index relationship

Friday, December 3, 2010

Reference: financial chronicle
"Rising dollar index is  a factor that leads to correction in the market"

The inverse relationship between the international dollar index and Indian equities market benchmark indices, which had weakened considerably in the first half of this financial year, has once again got restored in the past five months between July and November. (see chart in left-side block)

Since July 1, and till November 30, the correlation between dollar index and S&P CNX Nifty stood firm at -0.92, which means for every one per cent rise in dollar index, Nifty fell 0.92 per cent and for every one per cent rise in Nifty, dollar index fell 0.92 per cent.

In the first half of the year from January to June, however, there was almost no relationship between dollar index and Nifty, as the correlation was a positive 0.01, which means either side movement of dollar index had failed to influence domestic market during January to June 2010.

An FCRB analysis on past several six-month periods showed that Nifty has attained such a high inverse relationship with dollar index has occurred after two and a half years.

During the half-year ended December 2007, the dollar index and Nifty held same correlation at -0.92.

Since then, the correlation between the two kept on declining until first half of this calendar year, when this relationship totally broke for a short period. During Jan-June 2008 period, the relationship was similarly broken when there was a positive 0.67 correlation between the two.

The dollar index is a measure of the US dollar relative to six global currencies —euro, yen, pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. It appreciates when the dollar strengthens against these currencies.

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F 'n' O Indicators

Wednesday, September 22, 2010


Trends in the F&O can reveal broader trends in the cash market that can be used while transacting in equities. Investors can look at various parameters and ratios to gauge the mood of the market and determine in the investment strategy. F&O numbers give a hint about the short-term market movement. A note of caution: investors should use the F&O trends as one of the tools in the decision-making process and not completely rely on them for investment calls.
 This is because the liquidity or trading is concentrated in the Nifty index and in 20-25 stocks in the F&O segment. Liquidity is necessary for better price discovery. A few stocks go without trading for many days.
Among index futures, the Nifty futures account for over 90% of trading. Around 250 stocks are traded regularly in the futures segment. The top 10 contracts contribute to over 35% of the total traded volume in individual stocks in the futures segment. In the option section  Nifty options comprise around 98% of trading in options. Of the 265 stocks eligible for the derivatives trading, less than 100 stocks are traded regularly in the options segment. The top 10 stocks account for over one-third of trading in the options market. Stock futures are more liquid than stock options. Thus, investors have to ensure that the stocks they are examining in the F&O segment have good volume to decipher the trend in the cash market. So now let's move to F 'n' O Indicators.  


Premium or discount to the cash market:

First, inspect if the stocks or indices are trading at a premium or discount in the derivatives market compared with their underlying to predict whether the market mood is bullish, bearish or indecisive. Suppose stock futures or index futures are trading at a premium compared with the underlying stock or index. This points to a bullish trend in the cash market. But a stock or an index trading at a discount in the futures market indicates a bearish market.Investors can also look at the quantum of premium/discount to the spot market.

 Quantum of premium or discount 

To understand the magnitude of the bullishness or bearishness. If a particular index is trading continuously at a premium, it would indicate buoyant market sentiments. However, if the premium turns negative (discount) to the underlying stock or index, it would mean the stock or the market is weakening or likely to weaken in future. 
But care must be taken when considering the dividend on stocks. 
Future price will be in discount if there is a dividend EX date announced in that particular month. Then the Future price is equal to Cash price minus dividend amount. That means future price is lesser than cash price which does not mean that stock is bearish.  

Put-call ratio: 

This ratio is also known as the put-call volume ratio. It is widely used to understand the sentiments prevailing in the cash market. The put-call ratio is calculated by dividing the daily or weekly traded volume of put options by the daily or weekly traded volume of call options. This ratio is not only easy to calculate but also simple to interpret. Higher the number of call options traded higher are the chances of the market turning bullish in future. If put options are more popular, bears could dominate the market.
An increasing ratio over a period of time means investors are putting more money in put options, implying the broad market outlook is bearish. Thus, the market can be expected to move south or witness a sell-off.This could also be the case of investors trying to hedge their portfolios. On the other hand, a declining put-call ratio indicates investors are showing more interest in buying call options and the market is likely to move up in the near future.
 Extreme values point to a trend reversal in the coming days. This can also be termed as a contrarian indicator. An increase in the ratio to unjustifiably high levels is considered a buying opportunity as traders start covering their short positions. On the contrary, too many call options or a low put-call volume ratio signifies the market has reached an overbought level and a correction is likely. In short, a very high put-call ratio indicates the bear phase is likely to end, while a very low ratio means bulls could lose the grip over the market and a market correction is likely.  
Put-call open-interest ratio:
The put-call open-interest ratio is also one of the key indicators of possible futures movement in the spot market. The put-call open-interest ratio is calculated by dividing the total open interest of put options by the total open interest of call options. For instance, if the open interest for put options is nine and the same figure for the call options is 10, the put-call open-interest ratio would be 0.90. A put-call open-interest ratio of more than one means put options have a higher open interest compared with the call options and, thus, the future price trend is likely to be bearish. A low put-call open-interest ratio means bullish sentiments are likely to continue in future. Investors can monitor periodical changes in the put-call open-interest ratio to gauge future market outlook.
The daily Put/Call ratio can be found out by clicking the link and then accessing the data  for current month of the year.

Daily volatility:

Investors prefers a bullish market and perceive it safe as well. On the contrary, a bearish market is considered risky. Therefore, increase in daily volatility is considered bearish, while lower or moderate volatility is taken as a sign of a bullish market. Daily volatility represents volatility of the future contracts on a particular underlying stock or index. These figures are available on the NSE website. India VIX represent the daily volatility on overall market on the NSE.
The daily India VIX data can be found out by clicking on the link.

Rollover:  

The near-month F&O contract expires on the last Thursday of the month. At the time of expiry or close to expiry, investors will find news articles discussing rollover. Rollover is applicable to future contracts and not options. If an investor is holding a position in futures, he will close his position in the near month or in the current month and take a fresh position in the next-month contract. Rollover helps investors to carry his position for a longer period of time. The investor will find the Nifty futures with expiry in next month at a slight premium. he will have to bear the difference. Further, the investor will have to bear transaction-related expenses such as brokerage.
The percentage of outstanding positions rolled over to the next month is used to gauge market sentiments. A higher percentage of rollover symbolises bullish undertone, while a lower rollover indicates bearishness. It is difficult to comment on the market mood by just looking at the rollover figures. Investors have to use other numbers to deduce the right conclusion. Every buy side has a sell side to it. As a rule of thumb, if the market is in a bull phase, a high percentage of rollover could mean the market would remain firm or move up in the near future. In an extremely bearish market, a high rollover could spell trouble as it could denote that the bears are convinced the market would fall in the future.
Open interest and change in open interest: 

Open interest in the F&O market along with price movement and traded volume is also used by traders to predict future trends. Open interest is basically the total number contracts — futures or options — that remain open at the end of the day. 
Don't get confused with open interest and volume of trade. Volume of trade and open interest are different. Volume is total no of transacted contract for the day and open interest is total number of contract (buy) that still needs to be closed by going opposite transaction.
 

 
 

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cointegration of NSE with other stock exchanges

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Does a stock  exchange in one country is related to exchanges in other countries?

On a purely statistical term ,return on one exchange over a certain span of time can be regressed with other to find out the co-relation between them. This  can be done graphically also, where we can draw the return over a period of time after selecting a basis.

Formula for Daily return =  log (P i  / P i-1)   where

P i = Stock price at  ith day
P i-1= Stock price at  i-1 th day

Using the above formula the return I regressed Nifty 50 with  Hang seng Index, Nikkei 225, Straits Times, S&P 500  for last 5 yrs  and the co-relation coeff. were found to be as:

Hang seng Index =  0.22
Nikkei 225             = -0.04
Straits Times        = 0.20
S&P 500       =-0.10

Nifty- Hang seng Index


Nifty-Nikkei 225


Nifty- Straits Times Index


Nifty-S&P 500 Index
 
Although in graphical term it seems that hang seng Index  and Straits Times Index is more co-related with Nifty than waht it comes out from regression analysis. It can be attributed to the delay in movements of important market sentiments. Index movement based on any event also depends upon the composition of index. So,every index takes its own time to adjust according to the news.

S&P 500 still drives the indices around the globe on broader term but on daily basis its not.The lower co-relation between S&P 500  and  Nifty 50  can be used for diversification purpose in portfolio and a higher corelation can be used for hedging purpose. so, Hang seng Index can be used to hedge portfolio on nifty. Also, daily watch on Hang seng  and Strais Times Index gives a cue to opening of Nifty in early starts.

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